All around the world people want to know how American policy will change when Barack Obama becomes president.  I expect greater U.S. engagement on two humanitarian crises—Darfur and Iraqi displacement.

I realize that displacement in Darfur, or the Congo, or Iraq isn’t as urgent as home foreclosures, unemployment or energy prices.  But Sen. Obama has always seen displacement as both a humanitarian and a security issue, and it is in the security context that I expect him to address refugees, particularly from Iraq.

“If you start seeing more and more failed states, more and more displaced persons, more and more refugees, all of that becomes a breeding ground for terrorist activity, it becomes a breeding ground for disease, and it creates refugees that put pressure on our own borders,” Sen. Obama said in early 2006.  “In an inter-connected world we can’t insulate ourselves from these tragedies.  So, we’re going to, over time, have to develop some strategy as the world’s remaining super-power to address these issues, and Darfur is an important test case.  We’ve already failed one test in Rwanda, we shouldn’t fail another.”

Both President Bush and Sen. Obama have accused the government of Sudan of genocide in Darfur, and the Bush administration worked hard—though unsuccessfully--to bring peace to Darfur. But, when President Obama takes office, I think he will have a stronger hand to play against the regime in Sudan than President Bush has now.   Sen. Obama has advocated a consistently tougher approach toward Sudan than President Bush has followed; the president-elect has called for consideration of setting up  no-fly zone over Darfur to limit Sudanese air attacks against defenseless villages, and he has called for sanctions targeted against Sudan’s leaders and major industries.

Before President Obama considers invoking tougher policies against Sudan, he should launch a diplomatic peace initiative by instructing the new secretary of state to convene a regional conference involving Sudan and the nine countries that border it.  Many of Sudan’s neighbors are burdened by refugees from Sudan, and some of the bordering countries are prolonging the conflict by supporting rebel groups.  The U.S. message at the conference must be clear:  it’s time for Sudan, its neighbors, and countries such as China and France with strong economic interests in the area to work together to end the crisis in Darfur.  If not, the U.S., working with allies, will undertake a more aggressive set of measures against Sudan and countries supporting rebel groups.

The conference may not work—the Khartoum regime is adept at missing opportunities for peace—but a president will have one early chance to launch an international effort to end the death and displacement in Darfur, and he should take it.  It would be the quickest way to end the fighting and enable 2.5 million displaced people to return home.

The displacement within and from Iraq is also a major regional security issue.  Some five million Iraqis are displaced—20% of the population—and Iraqi refugees are overwhelming Iraq’s neighbors, primarily Syria and Jordan.  The Bush administration has resisted developing a comprehensive plan for dealing with Iraqi displacement, but President Obama won’t be able to deflect the problem.

The drawdown of U.S. troops from Iraq, as the Baghdad government is demanding now and as Sen. Obama promised during his campaign, will put the displacement issue front and center.  It’s impossible to imagine a safe and secure Iraq with 2.8 million internally displaced people looking for homes, jobs and justice, and it’s impossible to imagine a stable region with 2.2 million Iraqi refugees imposing growing burdens on their host countries.

Here again, President Obama should start with a conference involving Iraq and its neighbors to draft a plan for dealing with Iraqi displacement.  The plan must address four issues—resettlement, greater support for refugees in sanctuary countries, creating conditions for safe return to Iraq, and the need for Iraq to do more to help its own large internally displaced population.  A key ingredient of any plan would be a commitment by Iraq to use significant parts of its huge cash reserves to create conditions for safe return to Iraq.

A new president with a new approach could make a difference on these two difficult issues.  In fact, progress may be possible without great cost to the U.S., if, as he promised during the campaign, Sen. Obama can work through alliances.