WORLD BRIDGE BLOG

Today marks the fourth anniversary of the end of Sudan’s civil war between the north and the south. For two decades armed actors manifested a capacity for calculated brutality and imposition of human suffering on a level that defies description or reasonable comprehension.

Four years after the parties agreed to lay down their weapons there are two important lessons to keep in mind.

The first is that ‘peace’ is not just an absence of war, and that peace-building takes more than just the handshakes and photo-ops that exemplify the signing of accords.  The second is that peace is always possible, even when it is impossible to conceive of how to get there.

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was the result of a massive diplomatic push by Sudanese leaders and by the international community, led in large part by the United States. The agreement itself is strong, but far reaching and ambitious.  

This year, however, Sudan stands on the brink of a potentially volatile period in the implementation of that agreement.  We have just entered into the year designated for the first countrywide democratic election, and elections always have the potential to cause controversy and instability.

When you add to that the fact that many of the other important CPA tasks have not yet been completed, the potential for real challenges becomes clear.  The demarcation of the border between the north and the south, for example, has yet to be officially agreed. This has serious implications for the political control of particular communities and for the territorial control of oil rich areas such as Abyei.  

The development of professional joint north-south military units (the JIUs - Joint Integrated Units) to monitor these border areas has begun, but many of these Units are still weak, and ‘integrated’ in name only.  Many of the units are prone to fighting amongst themselves when conflict arises.  Finally, a highly armed population, multiple cleavages within the region, and a weak police and justice sector all make the south a powder keg.  For some communities, specifically those in the contested areas, disagreement over election results may well be all the spark that they need.  

For the rest of the South the larger threat of a resurgence of violence comes alongside the CPA’s most ambitious promise.  In 2011 southern Sudanese will decide whether or not they wish to separate officially from the north to become their own sovereign country.  This poses the obvious threat of violence between the north and the south, but may also stir up challenges between parties in the south, not all of whom are happy with the prospect of a divided Sudan.  

The final major challenge to the survival of the CPA is the simple fact that southern Sudan continues to be incredibly underdeveloped.  The average person in southern Sudan lives in absolute poverty, with little or no access to services such as medical treatment, education, or even clean drinking water.  New political institutions are just finding their feet, and there is still an incredible lack of infrastructure or industry of any kind.  At a basic organizational and logistical level, both the election, and the all important referendum will require a herculean effort to pull off.  

In spite of the many, frustrating roadblocks that have slowed CPA implementation, the simple fact that such an agreement exists at all, and that such a war was brought to a peaceful end, should be reason enough to believe that the people of Sudan can and will get through this.  

Unfortunately, the CPA, with all of its challenges, has long been overshadowed by the humanitarian catastrophe in Darfur. Many proponents of the CPA, including the US, have been distracted from the task of cementing the deal. They have not provided the diplomatic support needed to carry out the politically and technically difficult tasks embodied in the agreement.  Four years on, as we reach this critical stage in CPA implementation, the people of Sudan, including Darfurians, need the international community to recommit to the CPA.  

Terrible as the atrocities in Darfur have been, peace and stability in Darfur can not happen if the CPA is allowed to dissolve. On this critical anniversary, I urge the incoming US administration to refocus its attention on Sudan.  A commitment to take on the massive challenge and promise that is inherent in the implementation of the CPA is a commitment to Sudan’s future as a whole.

Furthermore, a renewed commitment to the CPA is a source of hope. It is a signal to people living with conflict all over the world that the international community won’t give up on them just because the challenge is complex.  And, as every American has heard – and perhaps even endorsed – in recent months, positive change demands powerful hope.  

-- Erin Weir