01/04/2005

In the wake of the tsunami in the Indian Ocean, one of the most hopeful events in many years went nearly unnoticed: the government of Sudan and the southern rebel movement, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), reached an agreement ending a 21-year civil war. The peace accord will be signed in Kenya on Sunday, January 9.

This peace agreement does not cover the brutal conflict in Darfur in eastern Sudan, but it is hoped that the conclusion of the north/south peace agreement in Kenya will stimulate progress toward peace in Darfur.

The task of making the peace agreement work on behalf of the people of Sudan will be monumental. Two million people, the great majority of them innocent noncombatants, are estimated to have died in the civil war and four million were displaced, including several hundred thousand refugees in neighboring countries. Moreover, southern Sudan remains in the grip of one of the most severe humanitarian crises in the world. "Southern Sudan," a UN official said to RI during our last visit in October 2004 "is still the worst place in the world to be born." The statistics do not contradict him. The southerners are among the poorest people in the world. In education, literacy, and child malnutrition, southern Sudan ranks at the bottom of the world and is near the bottom in all other social indicators.

Despite the agreement, humanitarian aid will still be a necessity for people in southern Sudan in 2005. The World Food Program described the situation of those people who live in the south as "bleak." Food production declined 20 to 50 percent in 2004 in the south due to a drought and 1.8 million people will need food aid in 2005. Longer term development aid is also urgently needed, but many donors have declined to invest in economic development prior to the signing of a peace agreement. On November 30, the UN released its work plan for Sudan in 2005. The UN proposes a humanitarian and development budget for Sudan of $1.5 billion of which about $800 million is requested to provide humanitarian and development aid and support the implementation of a peace agreement for the south and transitional areas of Sudan

Most of the burden of the war has fallen on the 7.5 million people who live in territory controlled by the SPLM/A and the displaced who fled the war -- often journeying hundreds of miles on foot in search of safety. Anticipating peace, more than 300,000 refugees and displaced are estimated to have come home in 2004. The UN has a planning figure for one million returnees in 2005 - but has insufficient resources at present to facilitate the return of that number of people. If the peace agreement inspires a sudden rush home by a large number of refugees and displaced persons, the aid agencies could quickly be overwhelmed.

In fostering a durable peace between northern and southern Sudan, a critical factor will be for the international community to provide quickly the peacekeepers, monitors, and observers needed to implement the peace agreement. In November, UN Special Envoy Jan Pronk said the UN "will deploy thousands, probably 7,000 troops from different countries in southern Sudan a month after the final peace deal is signed." Fortunately, already in operation are several small peace monitoring efforts in southern Sudan (See RI's report, Successful Ceasefire Monitoring in Southern Sudan, December 30, 2004). The experience in peace monitoring thus far in Sudan illustrates the importance of ensuring the willing cooperation of both sides to the agreement and assigning high-quality, experienced personnel to the complex tasks of monitoring, mediation, and reporting.

Now is the best opportunity to achieve a lasting peace in southern Sudan in more than two decades - and to catalyze progress toward peace in Darfur. It is essential that, while the world focuses its efforts on helping the victims of the tsunami, Sudan is not forgotten or neglected. The international community already faces multiple humanitarian and peacekeeping challenges and opportunities in this new year. Sudan is one of the most important.

Credit for success in achieving the Sudan peace agreement belongs to many Sudanese, other individuals, and international organizations. In the U.S, we believe that a word of special appreciation is due to former Senator and UN Ambassador John C. Danforth who worked tirelessly to achieve a peace agreement for several years.